
The UK is forecast to experience weaker growth and higher inflation due to the impact of the war in the Middle East, according to an influential global policy group.
It means this year the UK is expected to have the second-highest inflation rate among the G7 group of advanced economies - at 4%, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.
The body has also downgraded forecasts for many of the world's biggest economies due to the US-Israel war with Iran.
A prolonged conflict could trigger "significant energy shortages" globally, it warned, while if the sharp rise in fertiliser prices is sustained crop yields will be impacted and food prices will soar next year.
The OECD's new forecast for UK inflation is up from the rate of 2.5% it had predicted at its previous report in December.
It then forecasts inflation to drop to 2.6% in 2027 - still up from its previous projection of 2.1%.
Economic growth is now forecast to be 0.7% in the UK this year, down from 1.2% it had previously expected. Its forecast for 2027 is unchanged.
In early March the government's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), cut its expected growth rate for 2026 to 1.1% from the 1.4% it predicted in last year's Budget.
But this forecast was made before the Iran war, which the OBR said could have a "very significant" impact on economies.
Among G7 countries, only the US is predicted to have higher inflation than the UK in the OECD's forecast, while only Italy is expected to see weaker growth.
Global growth is expected to fall to 2.9% this year before nudging up to 3% in 2027. And inflation across the G20 countries is predicted to be 4%, up from previously expected, dropping back to 2.7% next year.
The OECD said its predictions depend on the assumption that the current energy market disruption eases, with oil, gas and fertiliser prices falling from summer onwards.
It said measures from governments to cushion households from the impact of higher energy prices "should be timely, well-targeted on households most in need and viable firms, preserve incentives to lower energy use and have clear expiry mechanisms".
Policies that improve domestic energy use and lower reliance on imported fossil fuels over the medium term were a priority, it added.
The forecast comes as UK clothing retailer Next warned it was likely to have to raise prices for customers if the Iran war persists.
It said overseas sales had been strong up to when the conflict in the Middle East broke out, and instability may continue to restrain growth in that region.
latest_posts
- 1
Astronauts' brains change shape and position after time in space, study finds - 2
Foreign journalist kidnapped in Iraq: Interior Ministry - 3
This Asian country is the next hot travel destination, and this is one of its best hotels - 4
Cyber Monday streaming deals 2025: Grab the Disney+ Hulu bundle for only $5 and save over 60% - 5
Step by step instructions to Contrast Lab Jewels and Regular Ones
Four countries to boycott Eurovision 2026 over Israel’s inclusion
The Appearance of Experience: Embracing the Reduced Portage Horse
UNICEF: More than 100 children killed in Gaza since ceasefire
Shrapnel hits across central Israel, injuring several, causing property damage
Nature: 10 High priority Setting up camp Spots In Europe
Dad issues urgent plea to find stem cell donor for his son
Watching ‘Home Alone’ with the kids this holiday season? Brace yourself for '6-7.'
Top Fascinating Organic products: Which One Might You Want to Attempt?
Could it be said that you are As yet Utilizing Old Tires? at These 6 Tire Brands













